为什么剩余碳预算的计算要考虑非CO2温室气体和地球系统反馈？
Why must remaining carbon budget calculations account for non-CO2 gases and Earth-system feedbacks?
非CO2气体（甲烷、氮氧化物等）贡献了相当部分的升温，需在预算中折算；同时冻土融化、森林碳汇减弱等“反馈”会额外释放碳或削弱吸收，使等效CO2预算收紧。忽略它们会高估可排放空间。
Non-CO2 gases (methane, NOx, etc.) cause a substantial share of warming and must be converted into CO2-equivalent terms; feedbacks like permafrost thaw or weakening land sinks release extra carbon or reduce uptake, tightening the budget. Ignoring them overestimates the available space.
难度 专业 · 适合 高中(15-18)
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23
来源 · Source
IPCC AR6 第一工作组报告,Cambridge University Press,2021
IPCC AR6 WG1, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, CUP, 2021
#碳预算 #反馈 #非CO2
为什么“公平”的碳预算分配（如人均平等）在现实中难以落地？
Why is an 'equitable' carbon budget allocation (e.g., equal per capita) hard to implement?
历史累积排放、发展阶段、能源结构与贸易隐含碳差异巨大；人均平等会严重约束发展中大国工业化，而历史责任论又难被发达国家接受，需折中方案与资金技术转移。
Historical cumulative emissions, development stage, energy mix and embedded trade carbon differ vastly; per-capita equality would severely constrain developing giants' industrialization, while historical-responsibility claims meet developed-nation resistance—needing compromise plus finance and technology transfer.
难度 专业 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23
来源 · Source
IPCC AR6 第一工作组报告,Cambridge University Press,2021
IPCC AR6 WG1, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, CUP, 2021
#碳预算 #公平 #气候正义
什么是“碳强度”（carbon intensity）？
What is carbon intensity?
指单位经济活动（如每度电、每元GDP）的CO2排放量。降低碳强度是实现减排而不必立刻停止增长的一条路径。
It is CO2 emissions per unit of economic activity (per kWh, per yuan of GDP). Lowering it lets emissions fall without immediately halting growth.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23
来源 · Source
IPCC AR6 第一工作组报告,Cambridge University Press,2021
IPCC AR6 WG1, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, CUP, 2021
#碳预算 #碳强度 #指标
什么是“剩余碳预算”（remaining carbon budget）？
What is the 'remaining carbon budget'?
剩余碳预算是指在将全球升温控制在某一阈值（如1.5°C）以内、以一定概率（如50%）为前提下，人类还能排放的二氧化碳总量。它是一个随时间递减的“配额”，每排放一吨就在减少。
The remaining carbon budget is the total amount of CO2 humanity can still emit while keeping global warming below a chosen threshold (e.g., 1.5°C) with a given probability (e.g., 50%). It is a shrinking quota—every ton emitted reduces it.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23
来源 · Source
IPCC AR6 第一工作组报告,Cambridge University Press,2021
IPCC AR6 WG1, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, CUP, 2021
#碳预算 #气候目标
我们可以把“碳预算”想象成什么？
What can we compare the 'carbon budget' to?
可以想象成一块慢慢变小的小蛋糕：全世界一起吃，吃完了就不能再多吃，否则地球会太热。所以我们要省着点用。
Think of it as a shrinking cake shared by the whole world: once it's eaten, we can't have more or the planet gets too hot. So we should use it sparingly.
难度 入门 · 适合 幼儿(3-6)
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23
来源 · Source
IPCC AR6 第一工作组报告,Cambridge University Press,2021
IPCC AR6 WG1, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, CUP, 2021
#碳预算 #比喻