冻土融化的“正反馈”与“临界点”如何被建模?
How are permafrost thaw 'feedback' and 'tipping' represented in models?
地球系统模式把冻土碳库与温度耦合,用活化度参数描述随升温加速的分解;部分模型加入 abrupt thaw(热融滑塌)模块以捕捉非线性释放,但仍存在较大不确定性。
Earth-system models couple permafrost carbon pools to temperature with activation parameters for warming-accelerated decomposition; some add abrupt-thaw (thermokarst) modules for nonlinear release, though uncertainty remains large.
来源 · Source
Walter Anthony 等发表于《Nature Communications》的论文,关于湖下突变融化加速二十一世纪冻土碳排放(2018)
Walter Anthony K M et al., 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes, Nature Communications, 2018
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 1 CROSSREF 标识 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9:21st-century mode