时间折扣与跨期选择的研究揭示了怎样的自我控制机制？
What self-control mechanisms are revealed by research on temporal discounting and intertemporal choice?
时间折扣指奖励的主观价值随延迟而下降，常用双曲线模型描述。神经经济学研究显示，即时奖励更多激活边缘系统，而延迟选择依赖前额叶调控，二者竞争强度可预测成瘾与储蓄等行为差异。
Temporal discounting means a reward's subjective value declines with delay, often fit by a hyperbolic model. Neuroeconomics shows immediate rewards recruit limbic regions while delayed choices rely on prefrontal control; their competition predicts addiction and saving behavior.
难度 专业 · 适合 高中(15-18)
CC BY 4.0 · 来源待核验 · Source pending review
来源 · Source
出处备注：著录仅给书名，无版次与年份；同一书名常对应多个版次，不臆测具体版本。
Nature Human Behaviour 跨期决策研究;《心理学年度评论》决策卷
Nature Human Behaviour (intertemporal choice); Annual Review of Psychology (decision making)
#时间折扣 #跨期选择 #双曲线贴现 #自我控制
前景理论如何修正传统期望效用理论？
How does prospect theory revise traditional expected utility theory?
前景理论提出人们在「价值函数」上以当前参照点为轴呈现反射状风险态度：收益区风险厌恶、损失区风险寻求。它用概率权重函数解释对小概率的过度加权，从而解释保险与赌博并存的矛盾行为。
Prospect theory replaces linear utility with a value function referenced to the status quo, showing risk aversion in gains and risk seeking in losses. A probability-weighting function explains overweighting of small probabilities, accounting for coexisting insurance and gambling.
难度 专业 · 适合 高中(15-18)
CC BY 4.0 · 来源待核验 · Source pending review
来源 · Source
出处备注：著录仅给书名，无版次与年份；同一书名常对应多个版次，不臆测具体版本。
《心理学年度评论》(Annual Review of Psychology) 决策卷;Nature Human Behaviour
Annual Review of Psychology (decision making); Nature Human Behaviour
#前景理论 #价值函数 #参照点 #概率权重
什么是「锚定效应」，它在日常判断中有多普遍？
What is the anchoring effect and how pervasive is it in everyday judgment?
锚定效应指人们在对不确定量做估计时，过度受最初接触的数字（锚）影响，即使该数字与问题无关。它出现在价格谈判、司法量刑与医疗判断中，且调整往往不足。
Anchoring is the tendency for an initial number to pull subsequent estimates, even when irrelevant. It appears in price negotiation, judicial sentencing, and medical judgment, where adjustments from the anchor are typically insufficient.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-11-04
来源 · Source
Tversky, Kahneman,《Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases》,Science,1974 (DOI: 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124)
Tversky, Kahneman, 'Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases', Science, 1974, DOI: 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 1 Crossref DOI 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
#锚定效应 #启发式 #调整不足 #判断
「选择过载」现象指什么，它为何会削弱决策满意度？
What does choice overload refer to, and why does it reduce decision satisfaction?
选择过载指当选项过多时，人们反而更难抉择、满意度更低且更易后悔。施瓦茨与同事的研究表明，适度限制选项能提升决策信心与后续满意度，这对产品设计与公共选择有重要启示。
Choice overload is the finding that too many options reduce ease of choosing, satisfaction, and increase regret. Schwartz and colleagues showed that limiting options can raise confidence and post-choice satisfaction, with implications for design and policy.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 来源待核验 · Source pending review
来源 · Source
出处备注：著录仅给书名，无版次与年份；同一书名常对应多个版次，不臆测具体版本。
《心理学年度评论》(Annual Review of Psychology) 决策卷;Nature Human Behaviour
Annual Review of Psychology (decision making); Nature Human Behaviour
#选择过载 #决策满意度 #后悔 #选项数量
什么是「沉没成本谬误」？
What is the sunk cost fallacy?
沉没成本谬误指因为已经投入时间或金钱而继续一项本应放弃的行动。理性决策只看未来成本与收益，但人们常把已付出且不可收回的投入当作继续的理由，造成进一步损失。
The sunk cost fallacy is continuing a failing course of action because of prior investment. Rational choice weighs only future costs and benefits, yet people treat irrecoverable past costs as reasons to persist, deepening losses.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-11-04
来源 · Source
Arkes 与 Blumer,《The psychology of sunk cost》,Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1985 (DOI: 10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4)
Arkes & Blumer, 'The psychology of sunk cost', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1985, DOI: 10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 1 Crossref DOI 10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4
#沉没成本 #决策偏差 #承诺升级 #理性
什么是「可得性启发式」，它会导致哪些判断偏差？
What is the availability heuristic, and what judgment biases does it cause?
可得性启发式指人们依据能多容易想起某类事例来评估其发生频率。因为媒体对空难、犯罪的突出报道，人们常高估罕见风险而低估常见风险，造成风险感知扭曲。
The availability heuristic judges event frequency by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid media coverage of plane crashes or crimes leads people to overestimate rare risks and underestimate common ones, distorting risk perception.
难度 进阶 · 适合 初中(12-15)
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-11-04
来源 · Source
Tversky, Kahneman,《Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability》,Cognitive Psychology,1973 (DOI: 10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9)
Tversky, Kahneman, 'Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability', Cognitive Psychology, 1973, DOI: 10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 1 Crossref DOI 10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
#可得性启发式 #风险感知 #偏差 #媒体
丢了100块的痛为什么远超捡到100块的快乐?损失厌恶怎么影响你的每个决定?
Why does losing 100 hurt far more than finding 100 delights? How does loss aversion steer every choice?
卡尼曼与特沃斯基1979年的前景理论用实验揭示:人对损失的敏感度远高于等额收益(1992年累计前景理论的参数估计中损失厌恶系数约为两倍)。这解释了一堆非理性:股市散户死守亏损股不肯止损(卖出等于把账面亏损变成真实损失);商家把运费从总价中拆出另收(避免涨价感知);谈判中不作为将失去比行动将获得更有说服力。框架效应是其孪生兄弟——手术成功率90%与死亡率10%听起来是完全不同的选择。损失厌恶深植于演化:对祖先而言漏掉危险比错过机会致命得多。
Prospect theory, from Kahneman and Tversky in 1979, showed that losses loom far larger than equivalent gains (the loss-aversion coefficient was estimated at roughly twice that size in the 1992 cumulative representation of uncertainty). This powers a zoo of quirks: investors refuse to sell losing stocks (selling converts paper loss into real loss); merchants split shipping fees out of prices (avoiding perceived hikes); negotiators argue you will LOSE by inaction rather than gain by acting. Framing effects are its twin — ninety percent surgical survival sounds unlike ten percent mortality. Evolution planted it deep: for ancestors, missing danger killed faster than missing opportunity.
难度 进阶 · 适合 初中(12-15)
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-11-03
来源 · Source
Kahneman 与 Tversky,《Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk»,Econometrica 第47卷,1979
D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Econometrica 47, 1979
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 1 CROSSREF 标识 10.2307/1914185：Prospect Theory: An Analysis
#前景理论 #损失厌恶 #框架效应