什么是现状偏误？
What is status quo bias?
现状偏误指人们倾向于维持现状、不做改变，即便替代方案可能更好，因为改变带来不确定感和损失预期。它在医疗、投资和制度选择中广泛存在。意识到“不作为也是选择”可减轻它。
Status quo bias is the tendency to keep things as they are rather than change, even when alternatives may be better, because change brings uncertainty and expected loss. It appears widely in medical, investment, and institutional choices. Realizing 'inaction is also a choice' can reduce it.
难度 专业 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#现状偏误 #保守 #决策
代表性启发式有什么陷阱？
What are the pitfalls of the representativeness heuristic?
代表性启发式让人们根据某事与典型样本的相似程度来做判断，却忽略基础概率。比如认为安静的人更可能是图书管理员而非农民，无视农民数量更多。这会导致统计误判。
The representativeness heuristic leads people to judge by how much something resembles a typical case, ignoring base rates. For instance, assuming a quiet person is more likely a librarian than a farmer, despite far more farmers. This causes statistical errors.
难度 专业 · 适合 初中(12-15)
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#代表性 #启发式 #基础概率
单纯曝光效应在决策中起什么作用？
What role does the mere exposure effect play in decisions?
单纯曝光效应指人们对越熟悉的事物越产生好感，哪怕没有实质理由。这会影响品牌偏好和人际吸引。它解释了重复广告为何有效，但也需警惕盲目熟悉。
The mere exposure effect is that people like things more the more familiar they are, even without real reason. It shapes brand preference and attraction. It explains why repeated ads work, though blind familiarity warrants caution.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#曝光效应 #熟悉 #偏好
什么是后见之明偏误？
What is hindsight bias?
后见之明偏误指事后觉得“我早就知道会这样”，高估自己事前的预测能力。它让人误判风险、过度责难决策者。记录事前判断有助于抵抗这种偏差。
Hindsight bias is the feeling after an event that 'I knew it all along,' overestimating one's prior predictive ability. It misjudges risk and unfairly blames decision-makers. Recording predictions beforehand helps resist it.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#后见之明 #偏误 #风险
为什么人们愿意赌小概率事件？
Why do people gamble on low-probability events?
人们对极低概率的事件往往要么过度恐惧、要么过度乐观，取决于呈现方式，这被称为概率忽视。彩票和保险都利用了这种心理。理性评估概率能减少误判。
People often either over-fear or over-hope about very low probabilities depending on framing, called probability neglect. Lotteries and insurance both exploit this. Assessing real probabilities rationally reduces error.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#概率忽视 #小概率 #决策
选择太多反而让人不开心吗？
Does too much choice make people unhappy?
研究表明，过多的选项会增加决策负担和事后后悔，降低满意度，这被称为选择过载。有限而精的选项往往让人更从容。超市果酱实验是经典例证。
Studies show too many options raise decision burden and later regret, lowering satisfaction, called choice overload. Fewer, well-curated options often leave people calmer. The supermarket jam study is a classic example.
难度 入门 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#选择过载 #决策 #满意度
为什么我们常常过度自信？
Why are we often overconfident?
人们往往高估自己的知识、能力和对未来预测的准确性，这称为过度自信偏差。部分原因是只想到支持自己的理由。在重要决策前多征询他人可减少偏差。
People tend to overestimate their knowledge, ability, and accuracy of predictions, called overconfidence bias. Partly it comes from thinking of only supportive reasons. Seeking others' input before big decisions reduces it.
难度 入门 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#过度自信 #偏差 #判断
为什么我们总觉得坏事不会发生在自己身上？
Why do we feel bad things won't happen to us?
这叫乐观偏差，人们倾向于相信自己比他人更可能遇上好事、避开灾祸。它带来信心和动力，但也可能让人忽视风险防范。适度警惕更健康。
This is called optimism bias, the tendency to believe we are more likely than others to experience good and avoid bad outcomes. It brings confidence and drive but can also make people skip risk prevention. Moderate caution is healthier.
难度 入门 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
Daniel Kahneman,《Thinking, Fast and Slow》Farrar Straus Giroux,2011;中译《思考，快与慢》中信出版社,2012
D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, FSG, 2011; Chinese ed.《思考，快与慢》CITIC, 2012
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 OPENLIBRARY 标识 /works/OL15992072W：Thinking, Fast and Slo
#乐观偏差 #风险 #自我