“低生育率陷阱”假说是什么？
What is the "low-fertility trap" hypothesis?
该假说认为一旦生育率跌破约1.5并持续，低生育的规范、经济约束与人口结构会相互强化，使回升越来越难，需要强力且及早的政策干预才可能逆转。
The hypothesis holds that once fertility falls below about 1.5 and stays there, low-fertility norms, economic constraints, and demographics reinforce each other, making recovery harder—needing strong, early policy action to reverse.
难度 专业 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
John Weeks,《Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues》Cengage 多版
J. R. Weeks, Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Cengage, various editions
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 ARCHIVE 标识 populationintrod0000week_o0n4：Population : an
#低生育陷阱 #规范
生育率为何会下降？
Why does fertility decline?
常见原因包括女性教育与就业提升、育儿成本上升、婚育年龄推迟、城市化与社会保障替代了“养儿防老”，以及观念变化；往往是多因素叠加。
Common drivers are women's education and work, rising child-rearing costs, later marriage/childbirth, urbanization and pensions replacing “old-age security from children,” and value change—usually combined.
难度 进阶 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
John Weeks,《Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues》Cengage 多版
J. R. Weeks, Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Cengage, various editions
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 ARCHIVE 标识 populationintrod0000week_o0n4：Population : an
#生育率 #成本
什么是“总和生育率”？
What is the "total fertility rate" (TFR)?
总和生育率估算一名女性一生平均生育的子女数；人口长期稳定的更替水平约为每名女性2.1个孩子。
The total fertility rate estimates the average children a woman would have in her life; the replacement level for stable population is about 2.1 per woman.
难度 入门 · 适合 大众
CC BY 4.0 · 已核验 · Verified 2026-08-23 · 2 条独立证据
来源 · Source
John Weeks,《Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues》Cengage 多版
J. R. Weeks, Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Cengage, various editions
独立核验依据 · Independent verification: 核验依据 2 ARCHIVE 标识 populationintrod0000week_o0n4：Population : an
#生育率 #更替